Secrets of the explosion: Technical analysis of the explosion of Hezbollah’s pager
Scenario 1: booby-trapping devices with small explosive devices
Some sources indicate that the devices were booby-trapped with small charges (about 20 grams of explosive material) that were included inside the devices before they reached users.
- Technical analysis:
- Design of the booby trap:
– It is possible to embed small explosive charges inside electronic devices without changing their external appearance.
– High density explosives may be used to provide a large effect with a small quantity.
- Detonation mechanism:
– Remote detonation: Using a wireless receiver inside the device that receives a specific signal to activate the detonation.
– Timer: Program the device to detonate after a specified period of time.
Specific sensor: Detonation when a specific function of the device is activated.
- Challenges:
– Stealth: Keeping the package secret inside the device without being detected during security screening.
- Safety: Ensure that no accidental explosion occurs during transportation or storage.
Scenario 2: Using malware to cause batteries to explode
Some sources suggest that malware caused the batteries to overheat, causing them to explode.
Technical analysis
- Lithium batteries:
– Vulnerable to explosion or ignition when exposed to high heat or overcharge.
- Malware:
– Overloading: Disabling charge control systems to direct excessive current to the battery.
– Disabling security systems: bypassing the device’s built-in protection circuits.
- Implementation mechanism:
– Devices may be updated with malware via network connections or storage media.
- Challenges:
– Device connectivity: Are the devices connected to a network that allows software updates?
– Desired effect: Could a battery explosion cause this many injuries and deaths?
Scenario 3: Replacing the devices with a charge containing explosives
Some reports indicate that the new shipment of devices contained explosives instead of the original components.
- Technical analysis
- Supply chain manipulation:
- Replacing original devices with booby-trapped ones during the manufacturing or shipping stages.
- Simultaneous detonation.
Use a mechanism that allows all devices to be detonated simultaneously, perhaps via an external signal or specific timing.
- Challenges:
Logistics: Coordination to ensure that explosive devices reach the intended target.
Detection: Avoiding detection of tampering during inspections or daily use.
Scenario 4: Advanced explosives
Explosives may be planted with technology that makes them difficult to detect.
- Technical analysis
- Use of unconventional explosive materials:
- Materials that do not show up in traditional security checks.
- Blasting techniques:
- Activating explosives via advanced technologies such as encrypted radio frequencies.
- Challenges:
- Technical development: The need for advanced resources and technologies to manufacture such devices.
- Discovery: The possibility of discovering unfamiliar materials or technologies.
Conclusion
Based on the above analysis, the most likely scenario would be that the devices were booby-trapped with small explosive charges that were detonated remotely or via a specific mechanism. This is consistent with the information about the weight of the device (20 grams) and the large number of injuries and deaths, which suggests a relatively powerful explosion.
The malware-overheating battery hypothesis is technically possible, but may not produce the same devastating effect as reported. Additionally, this hypothesis requires the devices to be connected to a system that allows software updates or to have exploitable security vulnerabilities, which may be less likely in simple devices like pagers.
Note: This analysis is based on the information available at the moment and aims to provide a technical understanding of possible scenarios. Of course, we await the official investigation by the competent authorities to reach accurate conclusions