Harris’ momentum has stalled — however not reversed. Right here’s 5 takeaways from the most recent polls.
Individuals rediscovered Kamala Harris after she ascended to the highest of the ticket, however that rush of vitality seems to have hit its restrict for now. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP
The stakes for Tuesday’s debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are huge.
Almost a month in the past, POLITICO identified 5 key indicators of the election’s trajectory past the Harris-Trump horserace. Revisiting these — with recent polling in thoughts — suggests Harris’ momentum has been arrested, however not reversed: She’s nonetheless gaining in reputation, and Democratic voters stay way more energized than when President Joe Biden was on the prime of the ticket.
And nonetheless, the race stays exceedingly — and stubbornly — shut.
Although Trump had a 2-point lead in a poll from The New York Times/Siena College launched on Sunday, Harris maintains a nationwide lead of between 1 and three proportion factors on common. Given Republicans’ present benefit within the Electoral Faculty, Harris’ present nationwide lead is barely nearer to Hillary Clinton’s inadequate, 2-point popular-vote victory in 2016 than Biden’s 4-point win in 2020.
Furthermore, the race can also be extraordinarily aggressive within the battleground states. In three main polling averages — RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, which every use completely different methodologies — every of the seven states each campaigns are contesting are inside 3 factors in both path. Harris’ largest lead is in Wisconsin (2.7 factors within the FiveThirtyEight common), whereas Trump’s largest benefit is in Arizona (2.1 factors within the Silver Bulletin common).
Look nearer, and it’s simple to see why Harris has closed the hole — why neither candidate has damaged away but going into Tuesday’s debate.
Kamala Harris’ favorable score
On June 27: 39 % (supply: RealClearPolitics average)
On Aug. 14: 45 %
Now: 48 %
Individuals rediscovered Harris after she ascended to the highest of the ticket, however that rush of vitality seems to have hit its restrict for now.
On common, about as many citizens have a positive opinion of Harris as view her unfavorably — removed from overwhelming reputation, however not too unhealthy for a political determine in these polarized instances. It additionally makes her typically extra common than Trump, whose common favorable score stands at 44 %.
It was notable that The New York Occasions/Siena Faculty ballot confirmed each with near-identical favorable/unfavorable scores: 46 % favorable/51 % unfavorable for Harris, and 46 % favorable/52 % unfavorable for Trump. However many of the different excellent information suggests a small favorability hole in Harris’ favor.
There’s extra threat — and upside, too — for Harris in Tuesday’s debate. Whereas 90 % of voters within the ballot stated they stunning a lot know every part they should learn about Trump, a smaller share, 71 %, stated they know every part they should learn about Harris. Which means her numbers may tick up or down relying on her efficiency, whereas Trump’s are much less more likely to budge.
Third-party vote share
July 21: 12.2 factors (supply: RealClearPolitics average)
Aug. 14: 7.1 factors
Now: 3 factors (with out RFK Jr.)
The 2024 election as soon as threatened to method document ranges of third-party voting, however that has fallen off a cliff following the Democratic candidate swap and the following finish (or semi-end) of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s marketing campaign.
Now some polls — just like the New York Occasions/Siena Faculty ballot — don’t even embrace Kennedy as an choice for respondents. (Kennedy ended his marketing campaign and endorsed Trump, however he’ll stay on the poll in some states, together with doubtlessly a pair battlegrounds.) Of the ten polls that at present comprise the RealClearPolitics common, solely 3 included Kennedy.
Between elevated satisfaction with the major-party candidates and lesser-known choices with out the identical degree of name-ID because the scion of a well-known political household, polls present sharply decrease curiosity in third-party candidates. Within the New York Occasions/Siena Faculty ballot, Libertarian Chase Oliver earned 2 % of the vote, and Inexperienced Celebration nominee Jill Stein had 1 %. Neither Kennedy nor Cornel West was included as an choice, and fewer than 1 % of probably voters volunteered every title.
There was a time when Kennedy had an opportunity to make the stage for this debate. He wanted to earn 15 % in 4 qualifying polls between Aug, 1 and early September — troublesome however not not possible primarily based on his standing earlier this 12 months. He earned three qualifying polls for the June Biden-Trump debate, although he failed to fulfill the ballot-access standards for that matchup.
Voter enthusiasm
Democrats who're “very enthusiastic”: 72 % (supply: New York Occasions/Siena Faculty ballot)
Republicans who're “very enthusiastic”: 69 %
Simply as within the state polls final month, Democrats have caught Republicans on the keenness hole after lagging badly behind when Biden was their candidate.
Now, the 2 events are neck-and-neck on enthusiasm, as are the 2 candidates: Equal shares of Harris (63 %) and Trump (63 %) voters described themselves as “very enthusiastic” about voting within the November election within the ballot from The Occasions.
That additionally interprets into vote intentions. Sixty-three % of probably Democratic voters stated they're “virtually sure” to vote, in comparison with 61 % of Republicans. It’s a near-identical break up amongst each candidates’ supporters: 62 % of Harris voters and 58 % of Trump voters stated they're “virtually sure” to vote.
Who's greatest capable of deal with the economic system?
July: Trump 52 %, Harris 40 % (supply: Wall Street Journal poll)
Now: Trump 51 %, Harris 43 %
An important difficulty for voters continues to be an everlasting Trump benefit: perceptions in regards to the economic system.
Democrats largely don’t consider the vp will overtake Trump in the case of which candidate is seen as most succesful on the No. 1 difficulty, however they hope she will slender the yawning hole that existed between Trump and Biden earlier than July.
Within the New York Occasions/Siena ballot, Trump had a 13-point benefit on which candidate respondents trusted to deal with the economic system, 55 % to 42 %. (The Wall Avenue Journal ballot is listed above as a result of it had a trendline; the Occasions and Siena haven’t requested that query earlier than.)
For Harris, getting that hole to single-digits can be a serious aim between now and Election Day. Within the 2020 exit poll, Biden (49 %) and Trump (49 %) had been trusted by equal shares of voters to deal with the economic system.
Route of the nation
On June 27: 25 % proper path, 65 % improper observe (supply: RealClearPolitics average)
On Aug. 14: 25 % proper path, 65 % improper observe
Now: 27 % proper path, 63 % improper observe
Individuals are nonetheless in a bitter temper in regards to the path of the nation, and Harris may gain advantage from a continued enchancment.
Within the New York Occasions/Siena Faculty ballot, a majority of Harris voters, 56 %, stated the nation is heading in the right direction. Trump voters are practically unanimous: 89 % stated the nation is headed within the improper path.
Greater than 1 / 4 of Harris’ voters, 28 %, nonetheless stated the nation goes within the improper path — an indication she isn’t depending on solely those that are at present proud of the state of the nation.
That’s one purpose why the vp is making an attempt to assert a “change” mantle, regardless of being half of the present administration. It’s not a straightforward argument to make: Within the New York Occasions/Siena Faculty ballot, simply 40 % stated she represented “main” or “minor” change, in comparison with 61 % who stated the identical of Trump.
One sign that Harris intends to proceed this theme in Tuesday’s debate: The multi-state, post-debate marketing campaign blitz her marketing campaign introduced earlier Sunday is titled the “New Manner Ahead Tour.”