Elon Musk announces human flights to Mars at a date that is hard to believe
Elon Musk is hyperactive in the midst of an election campaign (he is rumored to be a “minister” if Donald Trump wins), and as is the norm among politicians, he has today made promises that are almost impossible to keep, with dates for a manned trip to Mars.
In a post on X, this means that there will be humans on Mars in 2028. He says: “These unmanned vehicles will be sent to test the reliability of a safe landing on Mars. If the landings go well, the first manned flights to Mars will be four years later.”
It is almost impossible to meet these dates, considering that the spacecraft has barely left its orbit once. And above all, seeing the delay that accrues from the trip to the Moon.
The SpaceX founder isn’t very good at forecasting. Or he’s just too optimistic. He already said a few years ago that SpaceX’s first unmanned rocket would reach Mars in 2022, and astronauts in 2024.
Now Elon Musk wants to launch the first unmanned spacecraft to Mars in 2026, because that’s when the next transit window between Earth and Mars opens. This is called the optimum interplanetary transit window, and it only happens once every two years.
"There will be no crew to verify the reliability of a harmless landing on Mars. If the landings go well, the first manned flights to Mars will be carried out within four years," he says.
"From there, the rate of flight will grow dramatically, with the goal of building a self-sufficient city in about 20 years," he continues.
These are difficult deadlines to meet, given the delay of the mission closest to us, the trip to the moon with SpaceX rockets. It was planned for between 2022 and 2024, but was postponed to 2026, and there is still no date for a moon landing.
The spacecraft intended for travel to Mars has exploded several times, and has only entered orbit once. It seems unlikely that in two years it will be able to travel to Mars. And most importantly, it will take astronauts in 2028, when it is discovered that the human body is irreparably damaged by long periods in space.
We'll see how things go, and whether Elon Musk will be able to meet the deadlines with his dream of colonizing Mars.