Trump's Return to the White House How Will His Second Presidency Affect the Technology Sector?
With Donald Trump returning to the White House in January 2025, the tech sector is expected to face a wave of sharp regulatory changes. During his first term, Trump took radical steps that changed the landscape of the tech sector, and that could happen again this time.
The era of friendly relations between the tech sector and the US government has been over since 2017, as the Trump administration and then the Biden administration have adopted a cautious approach to the tech giants, albeit for different reasons. This shift has been embodied in the intensification of antitrust legal actions, the first of their kind in the sector in decades, with Google as a prime target .
But after years of attacking tech companies, the CEOs of these companies have realized the importance of maintaining good relations with decision-makers and staying away from public political conflicts. Instead of direct confrontation, these CEOs have begun adopting more diplomatic strategies. Mark Zuckerberg, the CEO of Meta, has gone from literally threatening Trump with prison to praising him after an assassination attempt, and has been soft on Republicans over Meta’s content moderation choices.
Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and owner of The Washington Post, decided not to endorse any candidate in the 2024 US presidential election, despite the newspaper’s historical support for Democrats. This decision led to the newspaper losing nearly 8% of its subscribers.
Elon Musk , the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX and owner of the X platform, also gave his full support to Trump, providing financial support for his election campaign with more than $130 million of his own money, and he also established a committee called America PAC, which hired hundreds of people in swing states to attract voters, giving Trump an advantage in these vital states. Trump praised Musk in his victory speech, describing him as a super genius.
Musk has quickly become a sort of “second deputy” to Trump , according to The Guardian , and was involved in a phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last Wednesday, indicating the importance of his role in the future US government.
Musk was also promised that he could run the Commission on Efficiency of Government, which is tasked with conducting a full review of the financial accounts and performance of the entire federal government.
Signs of this support have appeared, as Tesla achieved the best performance in the market after Trump's election victory, with a rise of about 18% during the sessions of last Wednesday and Thursday, and it continued to rise at the beginning of the Friday session, reaching a market value of $1 trillion for the first time since 2022.
Moreover, Trump now has much more power than he did in his first term, which means we will see more extreme and less predictable policies, especially in the field of technology, as Trump and his allies aspire to make radical changes. However, Trump’s ability to implement these changes will depend on the extent of his cooperation with Congress and the US courts.
So the technology sector is expected to witness significant and unexpected fluctuations over the next four years, which prompts us to ask which areas will be most affected during this period, and what will be the fate of the Microchip Act , which is one of the main initiatives of the Biden administration, and which will directly affect the future of both Intel and Samsung , as well as what will be the fate of regulations in the field of artificial intelligence, and much more?
1- Artificial Intelligence:
A second Trump administration is likely to focus on more lenient AI policies . Trump has previously announced his intention to rescind some of the Biden administration’s executive orders that set standards to prevent discriminatory uses of AI. So the next Trump administration is likely to deprioritize discrimination safeguards in this area, and limit the use of the Defense Production Act to require more transparency in the development of AI applications, which conservatives have described as government overreach.
On the other hand, Elon Musk, founder of xAI, appears to be a key figure influencing the Trump administration’s expected AI policies, especially if his good relationship with him continues.
Musk seeks to focus on the existential risks of AI, so he often comes under fire from major players in the field, such as OpenAI, which he co-founded but later distanced himself from and sued. He also supported California’s Senate Bill 1047, which he eventually vetoed, and previously signed a lawsuit to halt major AI development on safety grounds.
But Musk's focus on the existential risks of AI has drawn criticism from some researchers, who say such concerns could distract from more pressing issues like discrimination and bias in AI.
On the other hand, the copyright issue related to generative AI, especially the data that large language models are allowed to train on, remains a thorny issue that Trump needs to take a clear position on, as senior AI executives, including Musk, seek to influence his vision on this issue to ensure a legislative environment that serves their interests and supports their orientations.
2- Anti-monopoly:
Trump’s approach to antitrust is likely to be personal, with his decisions on companies and industries likely to be based largely on his personal views toward them. Jennifer Rhee noted :, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, noted that antitrust enforcement could become deeply personal during Trump’s presidency, with his views on companies or industries playing a crucial role in determining how strict or lenient regulatory measures are.
Adam Kovacevich, CEO of the Chamber of Progress — a US trade group that represents tech companies on issues like antitrust, content moderation and self-driving cars — agreed, putting it bluntly : “We’re going to see the Trump care standard… Companies that have a good relationship with the administration will get preferential treatment.”
The Trump administration is likely to continue its current legal battles against Meta, Google, Apple, and Amazon, while seeking less extreme solutions. Jennifer Re attributes this to the possibility that settlements will become more acceptable, especially if the cases do not favor the government.
Trump was not convinced that Google should be broken up, but Kovacevich says such cases could be used to pressure giants like Google to gain concessions on their content and policies.
3- The future of TikTok in the United States:
The TikTok ban is one of the most high-profile issues that Trump has seen a shift in his position. Trump previously strongly supported banning the app, but recently shifted his position, saying he opposed the ban because it would only benefit Meta. The shift came after he met with Jeff Yass, a major Republican donor who owns a large stake in ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company.
Under Biden, Congress passed a law requiring ByteDance to divest its ownership of TikTok by mid-January, a law Biden signed into law. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit is currently reviewing the legality of the legislation, and is expected to issue a final ruling before the end of the year.
But, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Matt Schittenhelm, even if Trump returns to the presidency, TikTok's chances of avoiding a ban won't improve significantly.
Because if the District of Columbia Court of Appeals upholds the law and the Supreme Court declines to intervene, Trump’s ability to reverse the ban will be limited. Under the law, Trump can extend the TikTok ban for up to 90 days, provided he provides a clear plan to Congress. The law gives the president some discretion over which other apps might be subject to the ban, but TikTok is named in the law, meaning Trump can’t easily ignore or overturn the order.
If the court strikes down the law for any reason, lawmakers will have to go back to the negotiating table again, and if that happens, especially after Trump said he opposes banning TikTok, it seems unlikely that Congress will spend valuable time working on a bill that the president may not sign.
4- Customs duties and China:
Trump started a trade war with China in his first term, and if his campaign rhetoric is to be believed, we will see a continuation of such economic policies this time around. While Biden has implemented some protectionist economic policies, including controls on the export of advanced semiconductors, Trump has imposed tariffs on goods imported from China ranging from 60% to 100%.
This will have a significant impact on many technology companies that rely on components made in China, as well as companies that rely on the Chinese market for a large part of their business strategy, such as Apple and Tesla. And here, the influence of Elon Musk, as CEO of Tesla and other major companies, may be an unexpected factor in this area, as his interests in China could influence Trump’s decisions.
5- Electric cars:
The electric car industry will face new challenges under Trump, who seeks to support the traditional auto industry and reduce reliance on imported electric cars, so the industry is expected to be greatly affected by the absence of tax breaks and government support.
While Elon Musk and Tesla's association with these policies may complicate the picture, analysts say Tesla's size and marketing power could give it a competitive advantage even in the absence of government support for electric cars.
Nathan Dean, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, sees only a 30% chance that the electric vehicle tax credits will continue under Trump. He expects the rhetoric linking electric vehicles to China to increase, which could open the door to replacing the exemptions with financial incentives for consumers, which could benefit traditional automakers like General Motors, Ford and Stellantis.
6- Semiconductor industry:
The United States, under the Biden administration, has taken a historic step in passing the CHIPS and Science Act with bipartisan support. This strategic law aims to revive the domestic semiconductor industry , which is a cornerstone of the digital economy and national security. This move comes amid growing concerns about the outsourcing of this vital technology, which is the foundation of many critical sectors such as healthcare.
But Trump called the bill "very bad" during an appearance on Joe Rogan's podcast.He also criticized Taiwan for “stealing U.S. chip business.” Shortly after, House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, said he was open to repealing the law, but later backed away from that position. Trump won’t be able to repeal the law on his own, though he could direct the Commerce Department to slow down aspects of its rollout.
7- Cryptocurrencies:
Trump has made cryptocurrencies a key focus of his economic promises, and his campaign pledges included stabilizing Bitcoin and preventing the sale of U.S. reserves, marking a major shift in his stance on the industry, having previously been a vocal opponent of cryptocurrencies.
To attract the sector to his side, Trump has proposed supportive policies focused on empowering the cryptocurrency industry within the United States, pledging to create a Bitcoin advisory board, and easing regulatory restrictions by replacing the current SEC Chairman, Gary Gensler, who is known for his strong opposition to digital currencies. His plans also include supporting Bitcoin mining operations within the United States to achieve dominance that contributes to strengthening the American economy.
Trump headlined the world’s largest Bitcoin conference in Nashville in July, saying during his keynote address: “For too long, our government has violated the cardinal rule that every Bitcoin user knows by heart: Never sell Bitcoin.” He has also received strong support from prominent crypto investors like Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz.
So it is expected that there will be more lenient and indirect regulation of this industry, as Trump has called for making the United States a “ Bitcoin superpower .”