Google announces GenCast, a new AI system that promises to revolutionize weather forecasting
Artificial intelligence applied to weather forecasting isn’t exactly new. However, Google has just announced GenCast, a model that promises to revolutionize weather forecasting.
According to the company, GenCast is a significant improvement over previous systems that used AI to make climate predictions. That’s because each forecast generated by the new model consists of 50 or more predictions representing different weather paths.
Previously, AI tools were limited to being deterministic, so they could only generate the one weather forecast they thought was best. With the help of GenCast, Google decided to take daily forecasts and extreme events to the next level.
In both parameters, and up to 15 days in advance, the company says its technology outperforms the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' ENS system, which is currently the best available.
Google explains that it has been testing GenCast against ENS since 2019 with more accurate climate forecasts than the European Central Average System. One of the most interesting examples Google gave of GenCast was in predicting the path of Typhoon Hagibis, which hit Japan in October 2019. The AI was able to predict a variety of possibilities up to 7 days in advance, with a fair amount of certainty.
Google says it plans to release GenCast code and weather forecasts to make them easier to adopt and use. It remains to be seen whether the technology will become a key complement to existing weather forecasting systems to provide more accurate forecasts and better early warning systems for storms and severe events.